Sunday, October 26, 2008

Offensive WCHA Stats

The season is young, and the jury is out on whether or not the two ref system will actually improve offensive output in the WCHA. One thing is for certain: penalty totals have climbed (if the SCSU-MN and UW-MN series are any indication). What about the goal scoring, though?


Note: all numbers were obtained through USCHO.com's WCHA standings page and calculations were done based off that. It's a pretty simple procedure - just add up the GF (goals for) column in league play, then divide by 1/2 the sum of games played by the ten teams to get the total goal output per game for a full season (280 games played, but there are 2 teams per game obviously, so it's 140 actual games played). Simple example illustrating this: let's say all ten teams have played two games against each other. Obviously, this translates into ten total games played.

Here's a list of WCHA goal scoring output (total goals / goals per game):

2008-09: 71 / 5.9 (12 total games played; MN and UW have played 4 apiece)
2007-08: 701 / 5.0
2006-07: 760 / 5.4
2005-06: 840 / 6.0
2004-05: 856 / 6.1
2003-04: 895 / 6.4
2002-03: 915 / 6.5
2001-02: 925 / 6.6
2000-01: 893 / 6.4
1999-00: 866 / 6.2 (current 10 team league w/ 28 game schedule)
Thoughts: until two seasons ago, the league had been stuck in a 6-6.6 goal per game range. After that, the offense fell off a cliff. I don't think officiating changed much over this period of time, so I'm left to conclude that the sharp drop after 05-06 is due to an upswing in early departures with the NHL's revised CBA. Even with the greater emphasis on penalties so far this season, the offense still hasn't climbed back above 6 goals per game (though obviously it's a tiny sample size).

1998-99: 786 / 6.2 (9 team league w/ 28 game schedule)
1997-98: 851 / 6.8 (9 team league w/ 28 game schedule)
1996-97: 1105 / 6.9 (10 team league w/ 32 game schedule)
1995-96: 1170 / 7.3 (10 team league w/ 32 game schedule)
1994-95: 1231 / 7.7 (10 team league w/ 32 game schedule)
1993-94: 1175 / 7.3 (10 team league w/ 32 game schedule)
1992-93: 1167 / 8.1 (9 team league w/ 32 game schedule)
1991-92: 1219 / 8.5 (9 team league w/ 32 game schedule)
1990-91: 1161 / 8.1 (9 team league w/ 32 game schedule)
1989-90: 1026 / 9.2 (8 team league w/ 28 game schedule)
Thoughts: the WCHA was in flux in the '90s; SCSU and UAA joined the league, and NMU left for the CCHA. The total number of conference games changed a couple times as well. 1995-96 marked the end of 7+ goals per game for the league.

1988-89: 1069 / 7.6 (8 team league w/ 35 game schedule)
1987-88: 1201 / 8.6 (8 team league w/ 35 game schedule)
1986-87: 1159 / 8.3 (8 team league w/ 35 game schedule)

Goals for / goals against stats unavailable via easily accessible standings pages on USCHO prior to the '86-'87 season. I could probably find them if I did a lot more digging, but it would just reinforce what is an already obvious trend: offense has been declining since the mid '90s. While the small amount of evidence this season points to a modest reversal of this trend thanks to the deluge of penalties being called, we still haven't seen any indication that the numbers are going to come close to getting all the way back to where they were 12-13 years ago. That fact tells me that officiating is just part of the problem (the others being better goaltending/defensive systems in place and more gifted offensive players leaving after just 1-2 seasons).

If the league - and college hockey as a whole - are serious about bringing back goal scoring, the other steps that they can take would focus on regulating the size of goalie equipment (I don't know if the NCAA's rules match what the NHL is doing on this issue or not) and coming up with some sort of solution with the NHLPA regarding early departures.

Sunday, October 5, 2008

New CCHA league

I give you the new CCHA - as named by yours truly.

Michigan Menopause (Red's getting rather old)
Michigan State Sack Licks (self explanatory)
Miami Vice (it had to be done!)
Bowling Green Butt Plugs
The University of Nebraska Omahahahahaha (laughable team)
Western Michigan WTF (explains much about their program)
University of Alaska Anal Beads (few women up there; they need 'em)
Ferris State Fornicators (it flows well)
Northern Michigan Mongoloids (it's the U.P.)
The Ohio State Stalkers (alternate: columbus cow molesters)
Notre Dame Never Laids
Lake Superior State Lesbos